The window for making money in the 'knowledge economy' is closing

Here's what I'm doing to set my family up as best I can

I believe we are living in the final chapter of the ‘knowledge economy’ as we know it.

Anyone who relies on expertise, creativity or “thinking for a living” is in trouble (me included!), so I’ve been thinking a lot about where things are headed with AI and trying to outsmart what’s happening by thinking of new business ideas and solutions.

I’ve realised this is an almost impossible task.

Predictions for AGI (artificial general intelligence, which is AI that can think, reason and execute like a human across any domain) have been rapidly pulled forward with experts now estimating the arrival of AGI around 2026/27.

And if AGI does what it’s expected to do, most knowledge work will become automated, followed pretty closely by service based work. So in theory strategy, content creation, coaching, design thinking, systems building and even legal work and medicine will be handled by machines that never sleep, never charge by the hour and can replicate the work of a team in seconds. Eek!

So where does that leave people like us, who rely on using our brains to make a living?

Well nobody can agree (because nobody knows!), but here are three camps of thought…

1: The welfare/UBI (universal basic income) argument

The argument here is that AI will replace most jobs, so governments will have to step in to provide a safety net/welfare. The idea is that UBI will provide income when millions of knowledge workers (and later service workers) are no longer needed.

But there’s no way this works for me.

My husband and I were both raised by single mothers in single income households. We were always cared for and had everything we needed, but money was tight and options were limited. That experience shaped us and gave us drive, but it’s not the life we wanted for our boys. So for the past 20+ years we’ve studied, worked hard and moved our family into a complete different wealth class. If UBI does arrive, it will never replace the standard of living we have worked hard to build for our family.

Our family also has first hand experience of how modern welfare systems operate. Our profoundly disabled son has been under the Australian NDIS (National Disability Insurance Scheme) for a number of years now. And although the NDIS isn’t a welfare program (it’s intended as a proactive rather than reactive system), it’s nevertheless under funded, full of corruption and extremely poorly managed. I can’t see UBI being any better.

We didn’t work this hard to end up dependent and I have no interest in handing over my financial future to a government program. Governments are slow, unimaginative and reactive and I don’t see policy keeping up.

2: The Us vs Them argument

This argument is that there will be two classes of people. Those who own the AI infrastructure and those who are owned by it.

This argument splits the world into two groups:

• Them (the people who own the models, the hardware, the datasets, the distribution)

• Us (everyone else who is reliant on them)

We can already see this playing out. A small number of companies like OpenAI own the proprietary data and are building the models that will power the next century of commerce.

But the problem for me is I’m not an engineer. I don’t have the capital, the IP or the insider access to “own the AI infrastructure.” And there’s no world where I’m joining OpenAI or building the next Anthropic. I don’t have the skills or the knowledge.

But despite this I also don’t want to sit passively on the other side of the line and just be someone who consumes what these companies are building while I continue to lose relevance and have all my knowledge and skills automated.

3: The ‘humans will be free’ argument

This argument is that AI will allow people to live more meaningful, creative and joyful lives because the mundane things they currently do for work will be done by AI.

I guess this is the more optimistic camp, but I also find this a difficult argument because I’m not built to lie around all day while AI handles everything for me. Even if I had unlimited money or time, I’m inherently a high agency person and I’m wired to make progress, contribute and try to be useful.

I need and want to be able to think about things and create things that bring value to others. This is what I enjoy doing with my time, not sitting around doing nothing.

So where does that leave me?

Well that’s what I haven’t been able to work out and it’s been a weird place for me for many months now.

I’ve spent my entire life focused on high performance, structure and education. I’m used to solving problems and climbing the ladder of success by working hard and improving my skills.

But I can’t protect myself from AGI as I have no idea what that will really mean.

So I’ve come to the conclusion that the only path forward right now is to think about what I can be doing for the next 3-5 years while humans are still relevant and how I can maximise the opportunity that’s in front of me.

And to do that I need to extract as much value as possible from the world I currently live in, while the knowledge economy still rewards real human expertise.

What I hope this will mean is I can create enough of a wealth nest egg that my family will be somewhat immune to changes that happen in the wider economy. Good in theory, who knows how it will work in practice.

In last week’s newsletter, I shared how I’ve had all sorts of career paths, from corporate to academia to design to now running a business that hundreds of thousands of designers. In that newsletter I shared how none of that was planned and I just focused on doing the best work I could in whatever stage I was in and that’s what created the next opportunity.

So for the coming few years that’s what I’ll continue to do.

All I can control right now is making TLDC the best possible thing it can be. At the moment there’s still demand, designers still want guidance from someone who has real world experience and they still value frameworks, community and systems that help them run better businesses.

So my job is to serve that market as well as I possibly can while it still exists.

Here’s my plan:

• Build TLDC into a platform, not a “Clare” personality

• Serve designers as best I can while humans are still the ones doing the work

• Turn my IP into systems that can outlive me or maybe even be licensed into AI tools in the future

• Maximise profits in the business while I still can

• Invest those profits into real world assets that generate long term financial security for our family (e.g. real estate)

• Do my best to stay on top of what is happening with AI so I can be somewhat ahead of what is coming

For now it’s still possible to monitise what’s in my brain and be part of the ‘knowledge economy,’ but that opportunity is disappearing fast.

I’m going all in while I still can.